The war in Iran, sparked by the US-Israel conflict, has laid bare the global dependence on fossil fuels, with the biggest emitters reaping the rewards. Oil prices are soaring, reaching over $110 a barrel, and are predicted to climb higher, potentially reaching $150. This crisis, the third global shock in six years, has exposed the vulnerability of our economies to fossil fuels. The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, warns that fossil fuel dependency is eroding national security and sovereignty. The 10 countries most responsible for greenhouse gas emissions are divided into two camps: those committed to fossil fuels and those pursuing a low-carbon future. The war has highlighted the divergence, with some emitters poised to emerge stronger. Global trends favor renewables, with investment in clean energy outpacing fossil fuels. However, the war has also revealed the benefits of high fossil fuel prices for powerful countries and major emitters. The US oil and gas sector stands to gain $60 billion, Russia benefits from soaring commodity prices, and Saudi Arabia's national oil company, Aramco, has seen its share price surge. Iran's oil revenues have increased, despite infrastructure attacks. China, the world's biggest emitter, is leading the charge for an electrified future, with emissions flat or falling for nearly two years. Despite a history of coal reliance, China is investing heavily in clean energy, with investments topping $1 trillion. India, the world's fourth-largest economy, has set ambitious targets for low-carbon electricity generation and emissions reduction. However, the transition is likely to be hybrid, with traditional fossil fuels remaining important for energy security. Germany and Japan, early pioneers of renewable energy, are falling short, with a continuing attachment to gas and a lack of progress on electric vehicles. Indonesia, the world's third-largest coal producer, has struggled with its 'just transition' plans, facing challenges in shutting down coal plants and investing in clean energy jobs. The US, under Trump, stands out as a paradox, with emissions falling until last year. Despite the Inflation Reduction Act boosting the green economy, Trump's administration is dismantling climate protection measures. Russia, under Putin, shows no interest in climate action, using oil and gas as weapons and leaking vast quantities of methane. Ultimately, the most powerful means of persuasion is to starve recalcitrant countries of customers. Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, believes mandatory methane agreements are inevitable, with satellites able to pinpoint sources of methane emissions. Jayati Ghosh, an Indian development economist, emphasizes the need for government intervention in the green transition, citing China's success and the importance of electrification of transport and subsidies for producers and consumers.
